渐进转轨数理经济学体系创新与中国实践
Gradual Transition Mathematical Economics: System Innovation and China's Practice
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摘要: 中国是一个向市场经济渐进转轨的国家,使用假定体制不变的一些主流模型来计算中国经济增长,不符合渐进转轨的国情。如何将体制因素内生和变量化,是经济学的一个难题。在方法上可尝试进行如下研究:一是观察相关资源受计划行政干扰和市场机制配置的分布比率,以及其在非竞争和竞争性领域配置的不同效率状态。二是观察土地作为不动产,禁止或者允许交易,价值流动通过率为0或1,以及价格有还是无。将非竞争和竞争性领域的分布和状态分别定义为扭曲值和标准值,以此形成渐进转轨二元体制经济的数理逻辑,并建立联立模型,计算国民经济体制性剩余和体制结构变动形成的增长。研究基于历史数据进行了增长的分析和解释,也仿真展望了未来体制改革释放增长潜能的可能性。Abstract: China, as a nation undergoing gradual transition toward a market economy, presents unique challenges when applying conventional mainstream models with institutional invariance assumptions to analyze its economic growth.Such approaches prove inadequate in capturing the institutional dynamics inherent to progressive transition economies.The endogenous integration and operationalization of institutional factors remains a critical theoretical challenge in economics.This study proposes a methodological framework that: (1) Quantifies the dual allocation ratios of key resources between administrative planning interference and market mechanisms, while evaluating their differential efficiency states across non-competitive and competitive sectors.(2) Analyzes institutional impacts through the real estate prism, particularly land transaction regimes characterized by binary valuation flow rates (0 or 1) under transaction prohibitions versus permissions, and price existence versus non-existence.By defining distortion indices for non- competitive sectors and benchmark indices for competitive sectors, we establish mathematical logic for dual-system transition economies and construct simultaneous equations to compute both institutional residuals in national economic output and growth effects from structural institutional reforms.Empirical analysis through historical data input not only interprets past growth trajectories but also simulates potential growth dividends from future institutional optimization.
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Key words:
- economic reform /
- gradual transition /
- economic growth /
- mathematical logic
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