现代化强国目标下能源使用成本最小路径研究——情景分析与理论检验
The Least-Cost Path for Energy Use in the Process of Modernization——Scenario Analysis and Theoretical Examination
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摘要: 全面建成社会主义现代化强国进程中，如何实现能源使用成本最小化是关系国家发展全局的重大理论和实践问题。本文以中国式现代化建设经济目标为导向，采用情景分析法构建了人均国内生产总值、全要素生产率、制造业比重、研发投入强度等变量在内的多种情景组合，分析了不同发展路径下的能源使用成本。研究发现，“中高低高”情景——即适中的人均国内生产总值增速、较快的全要素生产率提升、制造业比重适度下降、较高的研发投入强度——能够实现能源使用成本的最小化，在兼顾经济发展目标的前提下表现出显著的比较优势。本文进一步构建了包含制造业和服务业的两部门动态一般均衡模型，模型分析表明，技术进步通过提高能源利用效率发挥直接节能效应，产业结构优化通过降低经济体整体能源强度产生结构效应，研发投入通过促进创新形成间接推动效应，且三者之间存在显著的协同作用。数值模拟结果与情景分析结论高度一致，证实了最优发展路径的科学性。研究结论为当前经济转型过程中制定科学合理的能源转型政策和现代化发展战略提供了理论依据和实证支撑。Abstract: In the comprehensive pursuit of building a modern socialist powerhouse, minimizing the costs associated with energy transition represents a critical theoretical and practical issue with profound implications for national development. Guided by the economic objectives of Chinese-style modernization, this study employs scenario analysis to construct multiple policy combinations involving key variables-including per capita GDP growth rates, total factor productivity growth, manufacturing sector share, and R&D investment intensity. It analyzes energy usage costs across different development pathways. The findings reveal that a 'medium-high-low-high' scenario-characterized by moderate per capita GDP growth, substantial total factor productivity improvements, appropriate decline in manufacturing share, and high R&D investment intensity-enables the minimization of energy usage costs. This scenario demonstrates significant comparative advantages while maintaining balanced economic development objectives. Furthermore, the study develops a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating manufacturing and service industries. Numerical simulation results show strong consistency with scenario analysis conclusions, validating the scientific robustness of the optimal development path. The results provide theoretical foundations and empirical support for formulating scientifically sound energy transition policies and modernization development strategies.
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