The Least-Cost Path for Energy Use in the Process of Modernization——Scenario Analysis and Theoretical Examination

In the comprehensive pursuit of building a modern socialist powerhouse, minimizing the costs associated with energy transition represents a critical theoretical and practical issue with profound implications for national development. Guided by the economic objectives of Chinese-style modernization, this study employs scenario analysis to construct multiple policy combinations involving key variables-including per capita GDP growth rates, total factor productivity growth, manufacturing sector share, and R&D investment intensity. It analyzes energy usage costs across different development pathways. The findings reveal that a "medium-high-low-high" scenario-characterized by moderate per capita GDP growth, substantial total factor productivity improvements, appropriate decline in manufacturing share, and high R&D investment intensity-enables the minimization of energy usage costs. This scenario demonstrates significant comparative advantages while maintaining balanced economic development objectives. Furthermore, the study develops a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating manufacturing and service industries. Numerical simulation results show strong consistency with scenario analysis conclusions, validating the scientific robustness of the optimal development path. The results provide theoretical foundations and empirical support for formulating scientifically sound energy transition policies and modernization development strategies.