中国供求失衡、消费不振的症结何在——基于跨国和跨省数据的分析
作者简介:万广华,云南财经大学经济学院教授(云南昆明 650221);陈晓颖,云南财经大学经济学院博士研究生(云南昆明 650221);胡晓珊,上海电机学院商学院副教授(上海 201306)。
基金项目:
本文为国家自然科学基金专项(重点)项目“促进中国农村共同富裕的长效机制及政策研究”(72442019)和国家自然科学基金专项项目“城乡融合发展的理论基础和实践路径研究”(72541001)的阶段性成果。
摘要: 在国际大变局与逆全球化背景下,扩大内需是中国经济保持增长的基础和前提。基于跨国和跨省数据的比较分析,研究发现,居民消费的GDP占比偏低是中国供求失衡、增长乏力的根本症结。这一方面是因为中国家庭收入占GDP的份额较低,比经济合作与发展组织(OECD)低20多个百分点;另一方面,受边际消费倾向递减、贫富差距居高不下及社会保障不足的影响,中国居民消费率持续下行,目前已经低于OECD的平均水平。省市层面,云南、甘肃等地区因家庭收入占GDP的份额相对较高,其消费占比显著高于北京、天津等省市。政策模拟显示,消除与OECD的收入份额差距可使居民消费GDP占比提升23.38%,是消除消费率差距效果的11.7倍。根据比较分析,仅仅“保持居民收入与GDP增长同步”显然不够,必须千方百计使得居民收入增速快于GDP增速,同时保持居民消费增速超过居民收入增速。相关政策建议包括:尽快全面取消户籍制度,并推进城乡社保并轨,以提高或维持居民消费率;通过改革税收制度和加大转移支付力度,以提升家庭收入份额,尤其要强化对农村老人和农村低收入群体的财政支持。
Identifying the Crucial Bottlenecks of China's Growth Slowdown and Weak Consumption——Evidence from Cross-Country and Provincial Data
Abstract: Under the new “dual circulation” development paradigm and geopolitical turmoil,expanding domestic demand is vital for China to restore demand-supply balance and to sustain economic growth.Based on cross-country and cross-provincial comparisons,this study concludes that the low share of household income in GDP is the key constraint.China's share has declined to less than 50%,more than 20 percentage points below the OECD average,driven by decreasing marginal propensity to consume,worsening income distribution (Gini coefficient persistently above 0.46),and insufficient social protection (medical reimbursement rates and pension coverage both below those of Japan and South Korea).Within China,poor provinces such as Yunnan and Gansu have higher consumption-to-GDP ratios because they have higher income shares than rich provinces such as Beijing and Tianjin.Policy simulations reveal that raising the income share is far more effective than lifting household consumption rate:aligning China's income share with the OECD could increase the consumption-to-GDP ratio by 23.38%,which is 11.7 times the effect of aligning the consumption rate.It is clear that the government policy to “maintaining household income growth in line with GDP growth” is insufficient;consumption growth must outpace household income growth which in turn must outpace GDP growth.Policy recommendations include abolishing the household registration system,raising the labor income share through tax reforms,and integrating the urban and rural social security systems,and providing extra support to low-income households in rural and inland regions.