公共财政投资于人的统计框架与核算结果
A Statistical Framework and Measurement Results for Public Finance Investing in People
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摘要: 投资于人是中国投资理念的全面更新,是引领财政资源优化配置的基本指针。中国一贯重视统计的引领作用,但截至目前还没有规范权威的投资于人的统计口径,导致各种数据莫衷一是,不利于在评估已有成就的同时,引导财政资源配置方向。鉴于此,本文基于全国党代会等权威文本关于民生和人力资源开发的论述和部署,建立财政投资于人支出范围和内容的语料库,同时结合财政部门发布的《政府收支分类科目》文本语料库,运用修正的文本分析方法,在财政支出款级科目层面,识别民生和人力资源开发所包含的支出科目,探索建立财政投资于人的统计框架。在此基础上,使用2014—2024年全国、中央、地方和代表性省份一般公共预算支出数据,测度中国财政投资于人的情况。基于所建统计框架,我们偏好的测算结果显示,近年来,全国一般公共预算投资于人支出的规模持续增长,但占比却未见相似趋势,甚至略有下滑,平均在50%左右。进一步,地方支出占比总体高于全国,但也呈现一定的异质性和波动性。本文首次采用量化方法,尝试在款级支出层面建立财政投资于人统计框架,这对于发挥统计引领投资于人将有所启示。Abstract: Investing in People reflects China's renewed development philosophy and provides guidance for optimizing fiscal resource allocation. Yet the absence of a standardized fiscal statistical definition has led to divergent estimates and weakened the policy role of statistics. This paper constructs two corpora,one based on authoritative policy texts on people's well-being and human resource development,and the other on the Government Revenue and Expenditure Classification. Using a modified text analysis method,it identifies related expenditure items at the subcategory level and develops a statistical framework for fiscal Investing in People. Based on general public budget expenditure data from 2014 to 2024,the paper measures fiscal Investing in People at the national,central,local,and representative provincial levels. The results show that although its absolute scale has continued to expand,its share in general public budget expenditure has averaged around 50 percent and declined slightly. Local shares are generally higher than the national share,with notable regional heterogeneity. This paper contributes a quantitative subcategory-level framework for identifying and measuring fiscal Investing in People,providing statistical support for policy practice.
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Key words:
- public finance /
- Investing in People /
- statistical definition /
- text analysis
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